in fact, this rivalry is not only possible, it is completely real. In what way do they want to overcome it ?; · what does NATO mean by having « access to non-military instruments » ?Is it a question of having more control over civil society in western countries ?Page 7 : « In order to start off the process, they propose establishing a directorate bringing together the United States, the European Union and NATO. Its mission would be to coordinate all operations in the Atlantic sphere. » For what objectives ?The Five explain this on page 42 : « What the Western allies expect is the pro-active defence of their societies and their way of life maintaind over the long term. »« Defending our way of life » has already been used as an argument by Bush senior to launch the first war against Iraq. In fact, « way of life » is a hypocritical term that means the domination of the multinationals over economic life : it is a domination that keeps half of humanity in poverty. The aim of the Five is in fact to use military means to maintain the gap between the rich and the poor. Anyone who doubts this should read, on page 92 : « The objectives of our strategy are to preserve the peace, our values, economic liberalism and stability. »It is, therefore, to preserve the stability of the multinationals. Against what enemies ? The authors give some examples of what is not to be tolerated in the Third World. Page 52 : « We have less important examples of non-desirable aid, from Venezuela to the Cuban regime. » The world gendarme takes upon itself the right to intervene everywhere against countries that do things that the multinationals don't like.But among the undesirables, who is the main enemy ? The answer is on page 44 :« China is in a situation to wreak great harm on the US and the world economies, based on its enormous reserves in dollars. » And, on page 52 : « China is in a position to use finance to impose itself on Africa and acquire the capacity to utilize it on a much greater scale - if it so decides. »So here we have, well-defined, the good and the bad. Liberalism needs NATO to impose itself on the whole world. And to carry out this economic war, what means does NATO require ?International law and the United Nations thrown overboardIn fact, the five generals feel frustrated. On page 76 : « One of the chief problems in the current strategic conception of the Atlantic alliance is that its actions remain reactive rather than preventive, and are limited to military means. On page 91 : « An ambitious strategy must include the well-integrated use of all accessible means, political, economic, military, cultural, social, moral, spiritual and psychological. »So there we are ! The Gang of Five wants to move beyond its military tasks and exercise control over the functioning of civil society. But will the law be respected at least by this new world government ? It is very doubtful. On pages 94-95 : « Another principle to be respected is legality. All action must be legitimate, authorized and respect international law. That can be a considerable handicap when the adversary has no respect at all for any law whatsoever, but to act differently would mean, in the end, applying the law of the jungle and undermine our own credibility. Nevertheless this principle does not prevent adapting existing international law in an international context that is constant evolution. »In this quote, the first sentences serve as window dressing and the real content comes at the end. « Adapting » the law means, in effect, violating it, denying the principles proclaimed up until now. After Abu Ghraib, Guantánamo, torture, the assassination of heads of states, the extraordinary rendition flights and secret prisons of the CIA : are they proposing to combat these violations of the law ? No, they propose to legalize them, 'adapting' the law.Already two wars against Iraq and the one against Yugoslavia have violated international law, the UN Charter and even NATO's own Charter. But it is precisely international legality that the Five want to get rid of. Pages 104-105 : « The approval of the United Nations may not be necessary according to Article 51 of the UN Charter (legitimate defence) and it is perhaps possible to renounce it on the basis of the Convention on Genocide. » « Long live preventive war ! » Even if it is nuclear.Page 96 makes for reading that is just as disturbing : « What we need is a form of dissuasion through pro-active refusal, in which the preemption is a form of imminent reaction and prevention an attempt to take back the initiative and put an end to the conflict. »« Pro-active defence » in military jargon, means preventive war. The term is constantly repeated in the document of the Five. George W. Bush had already invoked a 'preventive war' against terrorism. As did Hitler in his time. Aggressors often take refuge in the pretext of preventing danger. In actual fact, international law explicitly forbids wars claiming to be preventive. But our fears don't end there. On page 94 : « At first sight, the nuclear weapon might seem disproportionate, but if one takes into account the damage that it prevents, it may be reasonable. » Here the immorality of these five Gangits bursts out into the open. Nuclear war is an atrocity and humanity has constantly demanded the dismantling of weapons of mass destruction. Here it is claimed that they are justified. The hypocrisy is flagrant : « to prevent damage ». This is completely vague and, without doubt, racist. The lives of adversary peoples are not worth anything.The truth is that these criminal generals, observing that classic bombardments are not enough to break resistance, and that wars on land are expensive and dangerous for the invaders, propose the nuclear weapon as a solution to the problem of the world hegemony of the multinationals.Preparing peoples' mindsAs can be seen, the goods that the Gang of Five wish to sell us are completely rotten and poisonous. This is the reason why they count on manipulating public opinion through long-term propaganda campaigns. On page 104 : « These measures must be accompnied by pro-active and coordinated efforts of communication through the media (,,,) Furthermore, such a media campaign can prepare peoples' minds for an armed intervention. »« Prepare peoples' minds » ! Of course, this is nothing new. Drawing up the balance sheet of the war against Yugoslavia, which was the most successful example of organized disinformation, a NATO general admitted, after the war ended, that false information had been systematically issued while embarrassing information was eliminated or marginalized in order to « anaesthetize opinions ». He thus acted upon NATO's philosophy that « Opinion can be worked upon, like other things. » In each war, Western generals commission spin doctors to sell their war and manipulate public opinion. But this time, this is taken much further : there is to be a long-term campaign to condition opinion.Page 129 : « Therefore NATO must develop an information strategy that serves three objectives simultaneously. It must persuade the world that NATO is a force for good. It must move before its adversaries start to disseminate their information : that is, NATO must impose its domination in public relations. It must win the hearts and minds of the inhabitants of the NATO countries (convince them that the Atlantic alliance's position is a correct one), but also the hearts and minds of the populations where the armed intervention is taking place. »« Impose its domination in public relations .» Information is seen as a war that is won by eliminating the forces of the adversary. This is no idle accusation. The US army bombed and imprisoned Al Jazeera journalists, NATO bombed Belgrade television station (17 killed), the Pentagon has prepared plans to eliminate embarrassing information on the Internet, whose democratic character is upsetting it considerably. A plan for world dictatorshipAt the beginning of their document, the five generals announced « ways how to overcome possible rivalry with the EU » How are they going to do that ?In effect, they use the framework of NATO to organize the submission of the EU to Washington's will :Page 137 : « We consider that multinational forces are the key for a rapid and inexpensive modernization of NATO's force, but we stress that this is not possible unless member states accept without reserve that these forces will be at the disposal of NATO for all operations authorized by the NATO Council. » Translation : the European armies will be obliged to obey NATO decisions (currently unanimity is required). The Five's plan would give three advantages to the United States : it would integrate European forces into their own wars ; it would share the costs among the allies ; and it would also share the unpopularity.The antidemocratic character of the Five is shown clearly on page 139 : « We are not formulating proposals for the reform of the EU in such detail as we have for NATO for two reasons : first, a new 'smooth' treaty, that has just replaced the 'constitution' that had been condemned, has now been adopted so as to avoid consulting the populations. »Their plan will make it impossible to carry out any opposition. Page 144 : « In order to avoid all sources of inconvenience, it could be decided that first of all an issue will be treated inside NATO and then the NATO members who are also members of the EU will undertake not to depart from the vote taken at NATO when the issue is brought up in the European bodies. » Thus, once NATO has decided, no European country will have the right to oppose its decision.In conclusion, this plan of the Gang of Five, prepared by people who have been at the top of world military power, exposes a significant tendency among the elite. Their plan for a super world government by the three blocs (effectively dominated by the United States) would relegate all vestiges of international law to the dustbin, legitimize preventive war and nuclear weapons andorganize systematic manipulation of public opinion. The plan is nothing if not fascist. This is one of the two options that the elite in the United States are currently considering for resolving their problems. The other is embodied by Zbigniew Brzezinski, whom we spoke about earlier.« Intelligent imperialism »?The US military strategists distinguish three types of war that they could launch :high intensity wars between big powers such as the two world wars ; medium intensity wars involving also the US military directly, but against much weaker powers, as in Iraq and Yugoslavia ; low-intensity wars, in which there is not a direct US military involvement but which are organized to defeat others. They provoke conflicts between neighbouring countries, or through paramilitary and terrrorist movements.The term 'low intensity' is misleading, as it could give the impression that there are fewer damages. In fact there are fewer only for the United States. Thus the so-called « low intensity » war that Washington launched against the Congo (through the armies of neighbouring Rwanda and Uganda, and various militias) resulted in five million deaths and it has paralyzed the development of the Congo.Brzezinski's strategy is different from that of Bush in that it favours low-intensity wars. In no way, therefore, is it more moral, but it claims to being more intelligent. But Brzezinski also proposes other forms of intervention. We often think of military intervention by the United States as the most visible form of aggression. But in fact they dispose of a wide range of forms of aggression.. To establish a complete typology, it would look like this, in order of ascending intensity :
corruption of local leaders ;· blackmail of local leaders ;· demonization media campaigns ;· various destabilization actions ;· embargos and commercial blockades ;· coups d'état ;· provoking separatist movements ;· war by proxy ;· bombardments ;· territorial occupation.As can be seen there is a wide variety of methods which, evidently, can be combined. But they are all aggressions. Of course all US governments have had recourse to all these methods, and not only certain ones. But the dosage and financing vary.After the crimes committed by Bush, it is tempting to think that there will be a change of method. However, if Washington decides to changes its tactics they will not be more pacific but only less visible. Brzezinski, it should be remembered, was the man who financed bin Laden in Afghanistan to tie the Soviet Union down in a long and costly war and to break its alliance with the Muslim world. Brzezinski is very proud of his success and never loses an opportunity to refer to it. If the United States decide to apply the Brezinski strategy there will certainly be fewer direct wars. And they will be carried out as often as possible in conjunction with allies. This will help to take care of their media image and the manipulation of the public. And above all the CIA will be more active : efforts will be made to replace wars carried out directly by the United States by indirect wars, making neighbouring countries fight each other, supporting 'the good war' and using all kinds of appropriate pretexts. This was the method used successfully by Clinton against Yugoslavia.The Brzezinski method has two advantages for the United States. They would regain a more presentable image and re-establish their moral authority. And by paying less money to the military-industrial complex the US economy would reinforce its competitive position vis-à-vis Europe, China, India, etc. In order to economize on wars the Brzezinski strategy would make more use of blackmail as well as of clandestine activities. Blackmail, especially, can be channelled through world economic organizations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization. These are multilateral institutions but dominated by the United States, who can dictate their wishes for the Third World in an apparently more objective manner. But this will not be easy because the World Bank and the IMF have created such antagonism among the countries they have dealt with that the latter are looking for alternatives. The idea of a Bank of the South, launched by Chávez is making progress ...More use would also be made of clandestine activities - in other words, the CIA. This makes it possible to get rid of obstreperous governments at a lower cost.That is why those who support Brzezinski's strategy call themselves partisans of 'soft power' or 'intelligent imperialism'. But the danger with this soft power is that the Left will be so glad that Bush has gone that they will reduce their vigilance because - for a certain time - there will be fewer direct wars. Thus the international anti-war movement, which is going through an evident crisis, will react even less strongly when confronted by the more discreet strategies of the Empire.At any rate, the Empire will not become more peaceful. Sooner or later it will launch more Bush-type wars. This is because the US elite in fact practise the two options alternately.Presidents come and go, the multinationals remainThese two options, militarist or 'intelligent' are not new. And it is not a question of the opposition between republicans and democrats. These two parties do not represent 'war' or 'peace' but only different electorates, different tactics, and are always at the service of the multinationals. Hence it is not a republican but a democrat, Harry Truman, who launched the war in 1950 against Korea and China. It was not a republican, but a democrat, John Kennedy, who started the war against Vietnam in 1961.And it is not a popular vote either, against the bourgeois vote. The US multinationals always finance both candidates, putting their eggs in both baskets. But their preferences can be judged by the amounts they contribute. At the beginning of the 1990s the multinationals invested in both candidates, but gave 59 pour cent more to Clinton and the democrats. Instead, from 1996 onwards they gave greater support to the republicans by 67 per cent. In the presidential elections of 2000 it was Bush who was massively financed. And he was declared elected in spite of the fact that the ballots had given his rival Gore the victory. On the other hand, in the presidential elections of 2008 the multinationals have changed sides again and finance Obama more than his rival McCain.However, the same president can change his own policy. After the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, Bill Clinton reduced the military budget and the orders to the military-industrial complex - for a while. By so doing, he had hoped to relaunch the US economic machine in general. But, although the decision was almost unnoticed, at the end of his mandate the same Clinton made a U-turn : « The military budget of the United States must be increased by 70 per cent. » This just confirms what was said previously : the great political decisions do not depend on the character of one president or another, but on strategies decided higher up. Presidents come and go, the multinationals remain.US policy alternates its methodsSo we shall talk about alternative US policies. After each important setback, there is a - temporary - return to 'soft power'.After the defeat of Vietnam and the moral condemnation of the dictatorships installed by Washington in Latin America, the US multinationals brought the nice pastor Jimmy Carter to power, with his wonderful speeches on human rights. After the Cold War and the first war against Iraq, President Clinton tried to involve the Europeans in his wars and gave special attention to media presentation. In fact, the US bourgeoisie was in fact always hesitating between the two options to solve its problems. Or, rather, it alternated between them : a bit more stick, a bit more carrot. But its choices became increasingly difficult. Neither method really solved the problems.Now, after the disastrous results of the Bush regime, the US bourgeoisie is hesitating between the two options. Either the headlong plunge into more wars or a tactical withdrawal, moving back in order to get a better run-up. The question is not what president they are going to choose, but rather what strategy.At all events, it is not sure that the Brzezinski strategy is, when all's said and done, less brutal than that of Bush. It is true that in 2008 he publicly criticized the president, saying that he was stupid to want to attack Iran, because he could not win and that a war would harm the situation of Israel and affect the price of oil, hence the US economy. Certain analysts think that Brzezinski wants to domesticate Iran because he hopes to turn the country around and make it participate one day in the encirclement of Russia. This is the power that remains his bête noire, the obsession of the author of The Great Chessboard. Some think that Brzezinski wants to completely encircle and weaken Russia, if not to wage war on it, and we should not forget China, which has obviously become a major target now. If this should happen, soft power will be transformed into Apocalypse Now.Their solutions will only exacerbate the problemsThat the US bourgeoisie is divided about which line to follow stems from the fact that, in the final analysis, the United States are not so powerful as is believed, neither in the economic field, nor in the military. Each time that the rulers thought they had found the solution, it turned out, after a while, that the solution only made things worse.For example, in the 1980s, in order to escape recession, the US multinationals fell upon Latin America and other regions of the Third World, gobbling up their raw materials, their businesses and their markets. But this neoliberal offensive so impoverished these countries, provoking economic catastrophes and hence increasing resistance that Latin America turned to the left. From 1989 Washington launched a global war to ensure its total control over oil. But oil continues to escape it. As from 2001 Bush launched his war against the so-called Evil Axis, but only succeeded in strengthening resistance in all regions of the world.The United States seem to be very strong, but are they really so ? With all their dollars, all their technologies and all their crimes, they have lost the war in Korea (1950) and the war in Vietnam (1961-1975), they have had to withdraw from Lebanon (1982) and from Somalia (1993). They would not have won in Yugoslavia (1999) if President Milosevic had accepted a land war. They have already lost in Iraq and in Afghanistan, even if they do not yet recognize the fact. Are they not a 'paper tiger' ? In the long run, aren't people who defend their wealth and their future stronger than dollars and missiles ?The United States spend far more on their military budget than all the other nations of the world together but that no longer succeeds in ensuring their world supremacy. One might say that they are their own victims of their fundamental contradiction : everything that they do is against the interests of the immense majority of the inhabitants of the planet, so they themselves create the force that will destroy them.An army cannot be stronger than the economy that finances it. And the basic weakness that will prevent the US rulers from attaining their objctive is that the US economy is sawing the branch on which it is sitting. By underpaying its workers, by delocalizing part of its production, by ruining the countries of the Third World that should be its partners it is ceaselessly impoverishing those to whom it should be selling. This problem cannot be resolved by either of the two options, the militarist or the 'intelligent' one. The militarists increase the expenditure and the resistance.The 'intelligent'option, while reducing the terror disseminated by direct warfare, also encourages resistance.Whatever tactics are chosen the United States will continue to wage war throughout the world in order to impose their economic system and their interests. It is urgent to recreate a strong peace movement and for peoples' sovereignty.Notes - The links between the economy and the war are analyzed in the book Bush le cyclone : Bush le cyclone (in French and Spanish). This book is particularly concerned with the question 'Who commands Bush ?' And, therefore, the next President.These questions will also be tackled at the next seminar organized by Investig'Action in Brussels (in French) on 8-9 November. For information : magali.investigaction@gmail.com Other articles on the foreign policy of the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, Iraq, Afghanistan, Brzezinski, Obama (in French)
